Brazil election, Lula and Bolsonaro will face off

In a poll to determine whether the country returns a leftist to the helm of the fourth-largest democracy in the world or maintains the far-right incumbent in power, Brazil top two presidential contenders will confront each other in a runoff vote.

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received 48.1% of the vote, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro received 43.5% of the vote, after 98.8% of the ballots had been counted. The outcome, according to Brazil’s electoral body, rendered a vote between the two contenders in a second round a mathematical inevitability.

There were nine other candidates running, although their support was far less than that of Bolsonaro and da Silva.

Since da Silva had been projected to win by a wide margin in the pre-election surveys, the closeness of the outcome surprised many. In the most recent Datafolha poll, which was released on Saturday, those who planned to vote gave da Silva a 50% to 36% margin. With a 2 percentage point error margin, 12,800 respondents were questioned.

According to Nara Pavo, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco, “this close contrast between Lula and Bolsonaro wasn’t foreseen.”

Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was confirmed by this election, according to Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo not a fluke.”

Rafael Cortez, who manages political risk at consulting firm Tendencias Consultoria, claims that Bolsonaro excelled in Brazil’s southeast, which includes the major states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais.

The polls “didn’t represent that growth,” according to Cortez.

Inflammatory comments, his testing of democratic institutions, his handling of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has garnered global condemnation, and the worst deforestation in recorded history have all been hallmarks of the Bolsonaro administration in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.

But he has gained support by upholding conservative principles, rejecting political correct equipment, and portraying himself as the country’s defender against leftist initiatives, which he claims violate individual freedoms and cause economic unrest.

Marley Melo, a 53-year-old businessman in the Brazilian capital Brasilia, wore the yellow of the Brazilian flag—which Bolsonaro and his followers have appropriated for protests—while casting his ballot earlier on Sunday. Melo stated that he is voting for Bolsonaro once more because he lived up to his expectations and that he does not trust the polls that indicate he is losing ground.

“Polls may be rigged. They are all members of organisations with interests, he claimed.

33 million Brazilians still lack access to enough food as a result of the slow economic recovery, despite higher social payments. Brazil is exploring a turn to the political left, joining a number of its Latin American neighbours that are dealing with high inflation and a sizable population that is not eligible for formal work.

Bolsonaro has consistently questioned the accuracy of electronic voting equipment in Brazil as well as polls on public opinion. Analysts worry that he has set the stage for rejecting the findings.

Bolsonaro once asserted to have proof of fraud, but he never showed it, even after the election body gave him a deadline. He recently stated on September 18 that something must be “strange” if he doesn’t win in the first round.